Tesla Model 3 battery options to top out at 75 kWh with likely 300+ mi. range

Discussion in 'In the News' started by clprenz, Mar 24, 2017.

  1. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    @Lowhican , you're obviously entitled to your opinion as well as free to choose whatever you want to do!
    As stated, I trust there will be more Model ≡ sales in the first 12 months after production start for the base battery version in RWD, with a couple of options, than what T≡SLA sold during all of 2016 of Model S & Model X combined! :cool:
    And yes, I too really want a HUD. However, if Model ≡ comes without it, I will still not cancel my reservation and am convinced that most HUD and Model ≡ aficionados will do the same, i.e. order the car anyways! :)
    By the way I just checked the delivery estimator and, my (stupidly late) 10/10/16 reservation date, I'm looking at a March 2019 delivery... T≡SLA Won't Get Rid of Me!! :D
     
  2. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    @Lowhican,
    You might be right at some point. People with lower budgets tend to scream more when their expectations are not met for the price they've paid. If that happens it is not good news for Tesla..... People who have better budgets tend to put those negative comments into it's true perspective, but the majority of people will get doubts over the quality of the model 3. And then sales could come to a hold.
     
  3. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    #43 Mergoscia, Mar 28, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2017
    @Michael Russo, Where is the delivery estimator to be found........... But you're not the last who ordered. I did on 12/09/16 so the ninth of december. Couldn't do it earlier. And for sure I will get delivered later cause I thought I want more options and a bigger batterypack. For that I still have to have some words with Elon.
     
  4. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    #44 Mergoscia, Mar 28, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2017
    @JP White and @ Michael Russo,

    Thank you for the information over the video's of Bjorn Nyland. With joy and laughter I watched a few.
    My conclusion about range in wintertimes in for instance Norway for the model 3 performance AWD with a batterypack of 85 kWh were not totally accurate, but not too far off as well.
    When a model 3 really wants to be taken seriously as a good standing car, then the batterypack would be at minimum 150 kWh or even more. Or you have to drive at a speed of 75 km or 47 miles per hour from Supercharger to Supercharger and charge every 160 km or 100 miles. I did the calculations and comparison.There are not only the weight of the car, the weight of the passengers and luggage, the wintertires, the temperatures, the snow and humidity to consider, but wind and sloping roads and breaking on snow as well. And at the chargingspeed of today you are hours away to get to your destination. Too bad 150 kWh is technical simply not possible at the moment. The decline in rangecapacity for EV's is percentage-wise far more then in fuel-cars.
     
  5. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    Courtesy of MelindaV from M3OC, this is the unofficial Google doc delivery estimator (by Troy on TMC), updated based on the newest info (delayed dual & performance). Like everything, to be taken with a grain of salt, yet felt as reliable or better than any other comparable 'tool' out there... Note that with such a late reservation, it really should not make much difference what battery pack, driving train(s) or options you wanna take... I'll be two years or more older by then... ok all others too... :D
     
  6. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    @Mergoscia , don't mean to challenge you without having seen your numbers, yet this would be a lot worse than what I remember Bjørn achieving in cold Norway with his (generally loaded) Model X... He generally accomplishes between 100 & 150 kms between charging, with often big changes of altitude, and with an average speed of at least 80-85 km/h, if I remember correctly...
    I find it hard to believe that, under more normal driving conditions, the (somewhat) lighter Model ≡, with the new more effective cells, would't be be able to achieve at least ~200 kms/130 miles at an average speed of 90 km/h (60 mph roughly). Don't know what EPA conditions are yet even if you take 80-85% of that, you'd be looking at 180-240 miles depending actual range when published & battery size.
    One last thing: Model ≡ has reportedly been designed from the beginning, among others with the new 2170 cells, to enable faster charging... I optimistically hope we can see 20-30' for an 80' charge within the time you and I get our cars...
     
  7. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    @ Michael Russo,
    Hi Michael....Last days I compared all the data provided by Bjorn Nyland and translated those to the M3 with the diiferences in mind, of course. This is by the trips in the MS and MX in wintertime and in summertime Bjorn made and all factors concerned. The most reachable distance is around 305 to 311 km per charge for a M3 P85 when the speed is 95 to 100 kmph. Do bear in mind that is with full autopilot on a straight highway without curves, no other traffic and in ideal weather conditions. So not at all achievable in real life.
    Maybe I made mistakes. To check the numbers maybe you can translate the data provided by Bjorn.

    By the way...a month or a couple of weeks ago I read an article in which Porsche? declared that problems with the size or strenght of the batterypack in kWh's as Tesla claims are not valid for Porsche. Porsche has developed a batterypack which is far more higher in kWh for their prime sportscar. At least 3 to 4 times 85kWh on a platform which is smaller them the Tesla model S, as I remeber correctly.
    Maybe the technical system of Panasonic is not equal to which Porsche uses. But is that a reason for Tesla and Panasonic not to change the system to something better? For sure when that is customers demand.
    I think Tesla and Panasonic should look to the batterysystem and reconsider. Cause when the statement of Porsche is true, Tesla has a hugh problem........Porsche is a part of the Volkswagengroup and way greater then Tesla. And sells way more vehicles and in 2019 EV's as well.
     
  8. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    Porsche is likely to something quite fine for the happy few. As for Volkswagen, their parent company, they are starting from a huge deficit of credibility so it will be a few years before they may represent a real threat for T≡SLA, if ever at all. During 2020-2025, I expect to see Elon's company to remain most relevant & growing nicely. I am not worry about them. :)
    In this context, here is a very well written (rare for SeekingAlpha) article I recommend to your and others' attention :
    Will Tesla Become A Trillion-Dollar Company? $TSLA
    http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4058984
     
  9. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    #49 Mergoscia, Mar 31, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2017
    At the end, Michael, people will want a car like Tesla to achieve standards which apply to other (fuel fossil) cars up to date. So as well with range and driving distances without having to stop more and longer stops; likely to stop less and less time per stop.
    When Volkswagen applies the batterypack developed by Porsche to it's whole fleet and starting within 2 years then Tesla will have a huge concurrent.

    The fraude at VW will be forgotten quickly, when they apply those batterypacks. People will say VW has learned hard and good a lesson and turned it into a succes.

    The article you included comes from another angle/ point of view. In that respect Tesla has no doubts. There are always more things in the world.................
     
  10. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    @Mergoscia , I am aware of that and trust Elon knows it too; whether it is realistic or not, and when, remains to be seen. Though I am convinced that, before long, in a few years, charging times will be significantly reduced with the evolution of technology. Plus let us not forget that, in the meantime, for most people, charging will be done every night, at home, and will largely suffice to for 90% of your driving needs...
    This also remains to be seen. Both how 'huge' a competitor and how quickly this deceitful conduct will be forgotten! ;). Will there be competition, whether from VAG, Daimler & others, for sure...
    To what extent this will truly affect T≡SLA's ability to grow very profitably and remain a key driver & player on this rEVolutionary journey, time will tell. As the article indicates, even if they only grow 20% per year thru 2025 (remember, from a very low relative base...), they will be doing quite well, and be able to leverage & sustain a technology lead for some time...
    Key is ramping up Model ≡ in a timely & successful fashion during the next 12 months. If that box is ticked... anything goes... the rocket will keep on lifting off! :)
     
  11. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    @ Michael,
    Answer 1. Yes, you are right for charging at home, but people will want to be able to drive around freely, without thinking about where the next Superchager is. Especialy when they are at holydays driving long distances. And at the moment they think that other chargingpossibilities are limited or not sufficient for their peace of mind. Factor two is the fact that the last few years older people drive and tour a lot more through the whole of Europe. In particular this group needs freedom in all aspects, for sure in their minds.
    This group (in quantity the group who drives most) as well spent a lot of money towards new cars and mobility.
    Answer 2. Yes remains to be seen. But VW is one of the view big (world's) companies which can act quickly...............................
     
  12. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    @Mergoscia all ok. This still does not change the fact that these are exciting times... :)
     
  13. Knut Erik Ballestad

    Knut Erik Ballestad New Member

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    Well, first you assume *much* worse conditions in Scandinavia than what we experience in reality!
    - Oslo is the coldest capital of Copenhagen, Stockholm and Oslo, and average temperature during December, January and February is -4 degrees Celcius.
    - Minus 20 degrees celcius is something we only see in Oslo a couple of days once every few years!

    I cannot speak for the Tesla battery chemistry, but on my Nissan Leaf, the range falls to ~90 km in such conditions (from 199 NEDC).
    In normal winter days I have ~105-110 km range, and in the summer 120-140 km range.


    Snow of more than 30cm is also a condition I haven't seen in the last two winters at least, and really not relevant any way, since any snowfall above 2-3 cm is required to be plowed off the road immediately on highways, and as soon as practically possible on all other roads. Plowing companies typicall operates under SLA's detailing fines to be paid whenever plowing happens too many hours after snowfall *starts*. They are typically required to continuously plow from snowstart until end of snowfall and until all roads are clear. So mostly, the effect snow has on range is approximately the same as wet/rainy roads has (~15 % range drop).
     
  14. Knut Erik Ballestad

    Knut Erik Ballestad New Member

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    #54 Knut Erik Ballestad, Apr 26, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017
    Well, this clip is not on a fjord (salt/ocean water), but rather on a frozen river/lake. Have fun:
     
  15. Knut Erik Ballestad

    Knut Erik Ballestad New Member

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    Here you go - Jeremy Clarkson and his Top Gear companions driving to the north pole:


    :-D
     
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  16. Knut Erik Ballestad

    Knut Erik Ballestad New Member

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    #56 Knut Erik Ballestad, Apr 26, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017
    You seem to have some quite strange requirements. Even in cold and bad driving conditions, you will not use significantly more than 0.2 kWh per km on highways, meaning that a 75kWh battery pack will take you close to 375 km (~4+ hours of driving).
    A 30 minute rest-stop will allow you to add 60+ kWh back into the battery, allowing you to drive 3+ more hours. You can continue like this for as long as you want, driving 3+ hour intervals with 30 minute rest stops.

    The weight of the car really doesn't matter much at constant speed, but of course climbing a mountain will 'explode' your battery consumption, but going down on the other side of the mountain you will *gain* energy on the battery. On the way to my mountain cabin, my Leaf uses 30% of it's battery capacity while climbing the last 11 km up to the cabin. Going back the same road, the regen functionality usually adds 5-7% to my Leaf battery. Wind also cuts both ways, they can both increase and resume energy consumption, but on average you should save as much as you use extra.

    Also, I believe you may be putting too much "rumour mill" into your statement on decline in range/capacity. My experience after driving my Leaf for 4 years/100.000 km is that I have absolutely *no* (Zero / 0) battery decline!
     
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  17. Knut Erik Ballestad

    Knut Erik Ballestad New Member

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    Porsche Mission E will *not* have "At least 3 to 4 times 85kWh", it will have a maximum battery size of 100 kWh (same as Tesla S/X), ref:
    http://nordic.businessinsider.com/p...-tesla-rival-photos-features-2017-1?r=US&IR=T

    However, *charging speed* of Porsche Mission E will be 350 kW.
    350kW charger speed * 0,25 hours (15 min) = max 87,5 kWh in 15 minutes.
    The article also mentions a battery size of 100kWh as an option that needs to be chosen to achieve maximum performance, meaning lower capacities probably also will be offered.
     
  18. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    Hi Knut,
    I want to be able to drive to the north of Norway in wintertime as a hunter in nature when snow and ice are there. In The Netherlands a couple of years ago we had some winters in which people couldn't drive for almost a week at all because of 15 to 20 cm of snow. The highways were relatively clean but coming there was out of the question. I want to be able to plough my Tesla trough that.
    It is because of the many videos and vlogs of Bjorn Nyland or TeslaBjorn, I have all these questions.
    The only thing I may have meant differently is the following. Also, I believe you may be putting too much "rumour mill" into your statement on decline in range/capacity. My experience after driving my Leaf for 4 years/100.000 km is that I have absolutely *no* (Zero / 0) battery decline! I never meant the decline of the batterypack itself after kilometres/ miles or years. I know that the quality of the batterypack itself is excellent. No, I meant the decline of range on one trip, when you have to take in account all the factors concerned.

    About the Porsche. It is not the same Porsche, if it was Porsche at all but I thought it was, the article I read was about. In the article I read it was about a race Porsche. The interviewed told that they had not the same sizeproblems as Tesla has. Porsche? declared that problems with the size or strenght of the batterypack in kWh's as Tesla claims are not valid for Porsche. Porsche has developed a batterypack which is far more higher in kWh for their prime sportscar. At least 3 to 4 times 85kWh on a platform which is smaller then the Tesla model S, as I remeber correctly.
    It is a pity, again, I do not have the link to the article. I am sorry for that.
    Now I am going to watch the videos you attached.
     
  19. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    Nice and funny video's although I do not understand Top Gear has to disturb and polute such nice surroundings, just for the fun of making TV.
     
  20. Knut Erik Ballestad

    Knut Erik Ballestad New Member

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    Basically, the factors are these:

    1. Air temperature
    -> affects battery cell temperature to some degree
    -> affects air drag, since cold air is more dense/compressed than warm air
    You can expect ~15% reduction in range because of this, but high speed driving is exponentially worse in cold weather

    2. Rolling resistance.
    -> wet or snowy roads typically also increase rolling resistance enough to reduce range with ~15%. Slushy snow (rarer in winter than in autumn/spring) mostly occur around 0 degrees celcius and might even lead to 20+% reduction in range.

    But the good news for you is that the Tesla superchargers in Norway are so frequent that to a certain degree you can choose to skip every other SC in normal driving conditions. If you also bring a Chademo adapter as well as your Type2 and Schuco charging cables you should be able to charge at lots of additional locations where you naturally would stop or even spend the night.
     

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