Rumor: RWD Models first?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Teslaliving, Feb 13, 2017.

  1. Teslaliving

    Teslaliving Moderator

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    I saw a thread over on Model3Owners club that said Tesla may ship RWD versions first. The thinking is that less motors will be needed to hit the same volume and RWD will be the "standard" configuration with AWD as an upgrade option.

    This doesn't seem right to me as Tesla has always shipped the higher end products first. It also means the early Model 3s would be lower performing cars. Also, the earliest of reservation holders (Model S owners) are more likely to get the higher optioned Model 3s.

    There is a point to be made that Tesla employees may want more of the base model types which could argue for a lower end car sooner.

    The way they go here could seriously impact the delivery schedules depending on what people are looking for. There's no way I'll get a RWD car.

    Thoughts?
     
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  2. gene

    gene Moderator

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    I had this same discussion with an analyst and I personally think Tesla will tread cautiously with volume roll out. Though from a business perspective, it would make sense for Tesla to achieve higher delivery numbers by rolling out less complex builds first - something that would satisfy Wall St. who's laser-focused on production/delivery numbers - Tesla is taking on significant risk by doing so. Here's why:
    1. Tesla has not scaled its Service Centers proportionately to production. Unless we start seeing a significant ramp in new Service Centers in the next 3-6 months, or we hear of wait times at Service Centers being reduced, I wouldn't expect Elon wanting to overwhelm these centers.
    2. Most Model 3 RWD buyers will be first time Tesla owners. It will likely be their first foray into driving electric and as such they'll have questions, concerns, and hyper-alert to anything that "doesn't seem right" on the car. This will equate to my point above. Overwhelming Service Centers.
    3. Tesla is a data-driven company. I can't imagine they'll choose a high volume roll out without first assessing impact on the Supercharger network. Find out how many are paying for long distance use. Find out where. Find out how congestion is across these regions. Scale Superchargers accordingly and then delivery more Model 3s.
    I have many more opinions on this, but I'll reserve it in the interest of not writing a short novel.
     
  3. clprenz

    clprenz Member

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    I could see Tesla definitely rolling out less complex versions of the Model 3. They did this a little bit with the Model X by holding development of the 5 seater version. But instead of prioritizing deliveries of high-spec cars, I think they will be pushing more basic developments.
    IE:
    - dual drive delayed until 2018
    - performance model launched in late 2017
    - Self driving won't be enabled until mid-2018 ( letting drivers get familiar and understanding their cars and how autopilot works first)
    - Other unknown features will probably be delayed.

    Production and design of the Model 3 has been designed for simplicity and mass manufacturing. I think we will see a completely different narrative surrounding the M3 with management VS the Model S/X ramps. It's all about production and maximizing their assets.
     
  4. Dennis

    Dennis Moderator

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    I think that Tesla will try to provide the Model 3 with less options to start and more packaged ones than previous launches... In looking at the volume of orders, they really need to make it easier.

    Frankly RWD is awesome... (then again, I'm rarely in weather.)
     
  5. gene

    gene Moderator

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    Others have suggested that Tesla will produce vehicles based on the reservation number sequence but I highly doubt that will be the case. Production line efficiency would be sacrificed.
     
  6. Tesla Addict

    Tesla Addict Member

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    Great points everyone, really makes you think! But personally, I'm not sure what their game plan will be... As Gene said, I don't think they'll go by reservation, but I don't think they'll be going by the fully loaded ones first either...
     
  7. ThosEM

    ThosEM Member

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    Do we even have reason to believe a D option will be offered anytime soon? That might well be reserved for the Model Y crossover, it seems to me. A small car can use all the carrying space it can muster, and a second drive unit just takes up unnecessary space in a small sedan.
     
  8. gene

    gene Moderator

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  9. ThosEM

    ThosEM Member

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  10. Teslaliving

    Teslaliving Moderator

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    No D, no 3. That's my mantra. Unlike @Dennis, I drive a lot in bad weather. Why I live in New England I still don't know. Something about EMC Dell way back.
     
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  11. EVFreak

    EVFreak New Member

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    I live in the mostly sunny SF Bay Area but still want the D model mainly for the superior acceleration traction and potentially more efficient regeneration capabilities.
     
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  12. gene

    gene Moderator

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    You won't regret getting the AWD capabilities. You'll find yourself searching for excuses to drive which inevitably will take you to locations that may have weather conditions outside of what you're normally accustomed to. Case in point is this recent spontaneous trip that took us from SF to Bear Valley.

    http://www.teslarati.com/map/10921/bear-valley-lodge?hashcomment=4554

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Electric Jen

    Electric Jen Member

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    I live where it snows but if ordering RWD means I get mine faster, I might go that route!
     
  14. Tesla Addict

    Tesla Addict Member

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    But great things come to those who wait... @Electric Jen ;)

    Haha, I completely get what you mean. Waiting is so hard to do, especially for the Model 3!
     
  15. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    Admirable, @Electric Jen ... but not me... ;)
    I will be at the foot of the Pyrenees by the time my Midnight S≡R≡NITY is delivered... In addition, I want to benefit from the full brake regen, which implies dual motors! :)
     
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  16. EVFreak

    EVFreak New Member

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    If you want yours faster, you can move to Fremont, CA...only employees will get theirs before you.
     
  17. Tesla Addict

    Tesla Addict Member

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    You'd be saving time, but not much money ;)
     
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  18. gene

    gene Moderator

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  19. Tesla Addict

    Tesla Addict Member

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    Well there ya go. Not too sure how I feel about that tactic though... I (and many others I'm sure) were under the impression that AWD and RWD would be available right from the get go... Oh well, more waiting time I guess....
     
  20. Teslaliving

    Teslaliving Moderator

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    It was disappointing to see.

    Also, Elon drew an invalid analogy to the Model S in saying that it was just like what they did with the Model S ramp in starting with RWD first then going to AWD. While true, he was implying this is how they do things but that was not the case for the Model X. The Model X did have production ramp issues but none related to the drive train.

    I do think, however, that by starting with employees (mostly CA/AZ) first then rolling out West to East in the US that they will get a lot of RWDs out quickly to those that want just that and hopefully by the time they would have reached the colder/snowy areas they'll already be at the AWD phase. So, I'm hoping this is no change in my original expected delivery date :p
     

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