Model3Tracker.info

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Paul Carter, Jan 31, 2017.

  1. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    Intro

    Since coming out with the Model3Tracker.info tracking website 10 months ago (on the reveal of the Model 3), many enhancements and options have been added to the site. This is all in hope to better help the community understand the most anticipated car launch of all time!

    For those not familiar with the site, here is an overview followed by some summary statistics and lastly our predicted pricing model and average selling price.

    Overview

    Those who have reserved a Model 3, you can register on Model3Tracker.info and input their details including their intended configuration.

    The system is anonymous (we only collect a username/handle and your email address to enroll). It is never is displayed on any screen or report. You email address and username are never shared or sold.

    As time gets closer to production additional capability will be available. You will be able to see when people start to design and order their cars. You will be able to see when the design studio opens in your location, VINS assigned and will be able to see what options make the delivery go faster and which options delay delivery and production of the cars. With this information you should be able to better predict when your car will likely get invited to the design studio, go into production and delivered.

    Your reservation will automatically be added to the World Map of Model 3's which show the status where in the process your and others (reserved, design studio opened, ordered (pre-production), assembly (vin assigned/in production) and delivered).

    Log on today and either update your existing information or register and enter your reservation and follow along! Its going to be a great ride!

    Statistics

    Model3Tracker.info Summary Stats 2017-01-31 2100 PST.png

    From the data gathered to date the large battery capacity is a very sought after option. Over 57% want the largest possible battery and just over 40% want it with the All Wheel Drive (AWD) for the maximum possible range.

    Model3Tracker.info Battery Config Pop 2017-01-31 2100 PST.png

    Two extremes, nearly bare bones base models variants (~ 7%) and ludicrous performance variants (8.5%) continue to be the least desired configuration.

    Another popular option is having more than just the base Active Safety Autopilot system. Over 65% want either the Autopilot Convenience Features with enhanced capabilities (EAP), at ~ 52%, or with the Full Self-Driving capability, at 24.9%. Note: Full Self Driving was a late addition option to the tracker, but existing contributors are coming back and upgrading this option, thus its likely very under reported right now.

    Model3Tracker.info Autopilot Pop 2017-01-31 2100 PST.png

    If Tesla puts similar charging functionality that are in the Model S and Model X today, almost 59% will opt for the standard charger, which will more than suffice for the average usage of most drivers. Having the upgraded charger is desired if you have very long regular commutes and need to quickly recharge to go out on the road again in a short time.

    Most contributors are also indicating that they don't care to tow. But ~ 10% will like to have an accessory hitch for things like bikes and skis, while almost 18% desire the ability to tow something a little more like a utility trailer.

    Model3Tracker.info Charger Towing Pop 2017-01-31 2100 PST.png

    For the interior, a Subzero option (likely heated seats, steering wheel, wiper blade defrosters and washer nozzle heaters) is desired by over 46%, perhaps showing that in a good portion of the world, people want this extra comfort and convenience. As far as other creature comforts, its almost a split in having more refined materials that Tesla packages as a Premium Upgrade Package.

    Model3Tracker.info Weather PUP Pop 2017-01-31 2100 PST.png

    Continuing the interior options, its expected that a few seat choices (premium leather and an all Vegan interior) have been recently added to the tracker, with Vegan being the newest configuration option that is gaining popularity.

    A majority seem to be quite content with having the standard décor and likely we should expect to see a more premium option like carbon fibre accents which over 38% will likely choose to upgrade to.

    Model3Tracker.info Seats Decor Pop 2017-01-31 2100 PST.png

    A few other option highlights include the sound system and the roof options. Most will be happy with the standard sound system provided in the base model, while 31% would like the have the upgraded sound system which is called Ultra High Fidelity Sound option on the Model S and Model X.

    The standard all metal roof on the base model isn't desired by most. 72% want to upgrade to the all glass roof, a sunroof (likely panoramic like on the Model S), or a recently added option of some sort of solar cells built into the glass roof. The solar roof option would help offset some of battery usage from interior components that monitor or maintain the temperature of the car when its sitting idle. It may also add a little additional range, but likely only in ideal conditions.

    Model3Tracker.info Sound Roof Pop 2017-01-31 2100 PST.png

    Pricing Model


    With the help of some of the other contributors and co-admins of the site, we decided to take a guesstimate of the pricing of these options. Recently there have been many people estimating the pricing and we thought we could also do the same. With this in hand we added a beta feature for several countries to be able to see the option and total pricing in US dollars and some local currencies.

    A summary of this is below, and a reminder this is purely speculative, but one interesting thing is that we can see that existing Tesla owners who are also getting a Model 3 will likely spend almost 8% more than a first time Tesla owner.

    We predict, before destination and documentation fees, that it'll come around $56,943 with well equipped at coming in at $ 61,300 and fully loaded likely $ 89,150 (in USD) which is around 2.5 times the base price.

    We are also allowing contributors to optionally indicate their budget cost for their estimated configuration or maximum amount they are willing to spend on a Model 3. We'll use this feedback to compare against the model and report on this as we get more data.

    ASP 1-31-2017 10-17-24 PM.png
     
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  2. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    Here's some quick summary data as of end of February 2017.

    Notes: Trend in stats seem very stable as usual. Existing contributors still coming back and upgrading AutoPilot to be the Full Self Driving option (thus still think the ~ 22% reported is low).

    Average Selling Price data has been adjusted to fix an issue with double counting EAP in FSD, thus down slightly.

    Model3Tracker.info Summary Stats 2017-02-28 2359 PST.png
    ASP 2017-03-02 20-00-00.png
     
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  3. GrandPoobah

    GrandPoobah New Member

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    #3 GrandPoobah, Mar 3, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2017
    As a non-owner, I find it interesting to compare the owner/non-owner column. It stands to reason that S owners would be more willing to spend on upgrades as they (blanket generalization warning) have more money to burn. There are only two items where owners spend less (on average), wheels and the high amp charger. This speaks volumes, given the feedback I've seen on the larger wheels not being worth the money. I'm a little surprised that owners apparently put less value on the high amp charger. Could this be because a higher percentage would have a second ICE car for the occasional long trip? Or do they simply realize that the added cost isn't worth the time savings on the occasional long trip and it is not needed for everyday driving?

    My dream configuration comes in at about $60K ... but my budget comes in at $50K.

    Largest battery $10000
    Dual Motor $2800
    Metallic Paint $700
    Sub Zero $700
    Self Driving $5600
    Glass Roof $700
    Tow Hitch $200
    Leather Seats $1750
    Premium Decor $700
    Premium Upgrades $1750

    Option 1: WTF ... get everything ... I'll get used to dog food :)
    Option 2: Mid-size battery and get EAP instead of FSD
    Option 3: Get EAP instead of FSD and nix leather and premium options
    Option 4: RWD, EAP, and nix premium upgrades
    Option 5: Buy a used S!
    Option 6: Take up skydiving ... without a chute :(
     
  4. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    I think there are a few major factors here at play:
    • Most could scrape by on any Level 2 amperage. This will suffice for most use cases at 30-32 amps for overnight recharging.
    • Cost to install an additional Level 2 can be cost prohibitive. (If keeping their existing Tesla). So will likely slave a 2nd charger.
    • Car might be used more as a daily driver / commuting car instead of a road trip car. Thus quick destination charging at Level 2 not needed often. DCFC at destinations or Superchargers could fill that void as well.
    • long distance travel will likely use DC fast charger (e.g. Supercharging) which by-passes the on-board charger(s), therefore doesn't matter in those cases.
    Paul
     
  5. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    #5 Mergoscia, Mar 20, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
    With your latest presumed stats my ideal but as well minimum car will cost me $71.650. I think 10 grand too high for the segment where the model 3 falls into.
    These are the specs I looked at:
    - Car with large battery
    - AWD
    - Performance drive train
    - Metallic
    - Premium standerd wheels
    - Sub Zero package
    - EAP + FSD
    - Smart Air Suspension
    - Solar Sunroof
    - Towing

    Although I am a High Fidelity freak I did not takes this. And as well I am Vegan, but did not take this option, purely for costs. The package I take has all to do with safety and range reasons.
    Next to that I take in account the extra costs for installing a loading point, solar panels and energy-storage. So the total costs are even more!
     
  6. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    Option 6 is a one time fly high adventure I would pick up when I become 120 years and have non left, ha, ha.
     
  7. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    With the recent news of the All Wheel Drive (AWD) coming later, that's a lot of existing owners/first time owners going to be waiting based on the stats. Only ~ 22% of existing owners and ~ 29% of first time owners (~28.5% overall) want the Rear Wheel Drive (RWD).

    The good news is the RWD holders will likely jump a lot of reservations holders!

    Existing Owners:
    [​IMG]
    First Time Owners:
    [​IMG]
    Overall
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    #8 Paul Carter, Apr 1, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2017
    Wow, one year later already!

    Recently there has been a few articles and videos posted about the tracker – not to mention the news that Rear Wheel Drive will be rolling out first. This resulted in a large influx of new data and existing contributors coming back to update their intended configurations. Thus the stats have shifted a little. Here is the March Summary Stats compared against last month followed by some interesting movements in the tracker data.

    [​IMG]

    The battery options proposed to contributors seemed to have been steady, but lately I'm seeing a trend that the base and medium options are slowly gaining ground.

    [​IMG]

    The most notable changes are related to the Drive (Rear Wheel Drive vs. All Wheel Drive) and Auto Pilot (Convenience Features vs. Full Self Driving). Both of these options seen bigger movements from all prior reports.

    The news that Rear Wheel Drive is going to be produced prior to the All Wheel Drive variant, has resulted in a noticeable drop in All Wheel Drive. The following graph shows over time the number of contributors switching their preference.

    [​IMG]

    As it stands now, 29% are wanting Rear Wheel Drive. From the year end report, it stood at approximately 25%.

    [​IMG]

    Autopilot convenience features option continues to see a notable drop as existing contributors are coming back. Since last month its dropped a further 4.76%. While Full Self Driving continues to grow, up by 6.38%. And overall those opting to upgrade from the basic active safety stands at almost 67% (up 1.63% from the last report).

    [​IMG]

    If you have contributed early on, please visit Model3Tracker.Info and review your intended configuration and please update if you think your option preferences have changed.

    Thanks again to all those contributing! The community is really enjoying the data and its very much appreciated. As the design studio opens and production starts this data will be invaluable in helping the community determine which configurations will result in a quicker delivery, and great statistics on the production and delivery.

    Cheers,
    Paul
     
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  9. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    About quicker delivery.......for everybody to consider........Do you want a lesser car (then you first wished) because you get your car half a year earlier? And because you probably/maybe get rebates or incentives?
    Remember, you don't buy the car for just a half a year, but probably for a few years to come.

    Nobody wants to be disappointed at the end. So consider wisely.
     
  10. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    Wise thoughts... my take is that most will like this car so much they will keep & treasure it for many, many years to come... I for sure plan to... :)
     
  11. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    If it is nearly as good as a model S or X, you will have (S.E.X.) untill you die.
     
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  12. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    New Dashboard: Interesting Trending Stats

    A new dashboard section will highlight new trends found in the data.

    Examples:
    (1) Configuration Intent: AWD to RWD. On the recent news that rear wheel drive will be produced first a trend of contributors switching from all wheel drive to rear wheel drive is being observed.
    (2) Configuration Intent: EAP to FSD. As more contributors come back after the Full Self Driving was announced, people are switching from enhanced auto pilot to add the full self driving to it.

    It will show live the count in the past day, month and quarter.
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    Interesting Trending Stats now contain weekly values to help compare with weekly updates received. As of now the trend is still showing strongly.
    • AWD to RWD
      • Day: 20/129 = 15.5%
      • Week: 47/230 = 20.4%
    • EAP to EAP/FSD
      • Day: 41/129 = 31.8%
      • Week: 58/230 = 25.2%
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    I've updated the dashboard and added a few more fun stats like active users and now showing new/updated contributions by month and quarter too.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    How is the number of new reservations for the Telsa Model 3 going? Here is the graph of the almost 9,000 contributions in Model3Tracker.info as of April 8, 2017.

    The data is showing a climbing trend. Despite Tesla's efforts to "anti-sale" the Model 3, I think the cat is out of the bag. People really want a more affordable Tesla.

    upload_2017-4-11_10-46-40.png
     
  16. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    I think it is great news for Tesla that people want a more affordable Tesla (then the model S, I presume). But at the other hand...I do not think people want a base model 3 solely. Somewhere from base model to a fully loaded model 3 with most options of a model S as possibility.
     
  17. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    Updated the latest graph after cleaning up some data quality issues and made the moving average longer (now 8 weeks).
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    @Paul Carter,

    Thank you for the data.
    But for me I can't get any solid knowledge from information out of these data, cause I am a total idiot with stats!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Can you explain to me what I am looking at?
    I do know I am looking at weeks and to numbers (per week?) of...........(new reservations? per week?)
    Thanks again.
    Kind regards,
     
  19. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    Hi. Its a count of the number of reservations in the tracker by the week they reserved. As more and more data comes in, the distribution of which week they reserved was pretty consistent. For the past 4 weeks I saw a trend that more people recently reserved compared to before. Its looking like a slow steady climb. Either those who just reserved were seeking more information and came across the tracker and added their record, or due to more awareness and recent news, the reservation rate is climbing.

    Hope that helps clarify.
     
  20. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    @ Paul Carter,

    Thanks. That helps indeed!
     

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