Model 3 battery size predictions

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Tesla Addict, Feb 7, 2017.

  1. Tesla Addict

    Tesla Addict Member

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    Elon was tweeted at: "did you just drop a hint that 3 will have 100kWh???" in which he responded: "No, will be lower. Wheelbase can't fit 100."

    So what will the sizes be? My prediction is that the lowest will be a 40 and the highest will be an 85, maybe there will be a midrange one around a 70 or 75.

    What are your thoughts?
     
  2. gene

    gene Moderator

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    Here's the tweet.



    Not surprised there won't be a Model 3 100D, not only because of the higher cost, but because having an "entry level Tesla" that can compete with a Model S that's likely twice the price point would cannibalize sales.

    My guess is that they'll offer something as low as a 40 kWh battery as well for the $35k entry level vehicle. Considering the fact that the new 2170 cells are supposed to pack much higher energy density than the existing 18650s, it wouldn't be inconceivable for the 40 kWh to have a minimum range of 215 miles. The next step up would probably be a 60 kWh.

    @Paul Carter, what do you think? What's the Model3Tracker group telling you?
     
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  3. Not_Mandatory

    Not_Mandatory New Member

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    I think you're confusing energy density and energy capacity. Higher energy density does NOT mean a new, more dense battery pack can pack the same energy contained in the 60kWh pack into a 40 kWh pack. That measurement (40, 60, 85, 100kWh) IS the energy capacity. What energy density means is that the new cells can contain more energy in a smaller form factor...so the same amount of battery volume has a higher energy capacity...think of it as the "electrons" being more densely packed inside.

    So a 40kWh Model 3 battery pack made with the new 2170 cells would have the exact same amount of energy as a 40kWh pack made from the older 18650 cells...it would just be smaller. Or to put it another way, in the the form factor/size required to make a 40kWh pack with the older 18650 cells, the new 2170 cells might make a battery pack of the same physical size with nearly 80kWh of energy.

    So 40kWh made with either battery cell will still only get your Model 3 to go roughly the same X miles based on the car's overall efficiency. (Of course, it gets complicated if the newer cells are lighter since that would mean less total mass to move, but the primary factor for range is still driving efficiency x available energy.)

    For example, the typical Model S range is computed using the maximum capacity of the battery (e.g., 85,000 Wh for a Model S 85) divided by an "average" driving usage rate of about 311 Wh per mile. 85,000 / 311 = 273 miles of "ideal" range.

    For a car only 20% smaller to go 215 miles on only 40kWh would be an astounding ~186 Wh/mi compared to 311 Wh/mi typical for a Model S. That's absolutely unheard of (for regular driving).

    So IF the Model 3 is slightly smaller, lighter, and slightly more aerodynamic, you might see 215 miles of range with a 50kWh pack, but even that would be an impressive 232 Wh/mile (compared to an average of 311 for an S85 and ~280 or so for the slightly lighter S60).
     
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  4. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    The only thing we see is the trend that most want the maximum range they are going to offer. I do think we'll see 2-3 pack options and unlikely any software limited packs. (I think the loss per software limited pack would get too high with the volume, even if the car is optioned out. The margins are likely too small to cover it the losses on the pack.) I'm expecting the base pack size to get around the 215 miles minimum target, then two increments of 40-45 miles. Which would mean topping out at 295-305 miles.
     
  5. clprenz

    clprenz Member

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    My take:
    Base Car: 50kWh (215m range) 230Wh/mile Price: $35k
    Mid Level: 65kWh (275m range) 237Wh/mile Price: $41k
    Top Level: 75kWh (305m range) 244Wh/mile Price: $46k
     
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  6. gene

    gene Moderator

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    That's a pretty good guess. Curious what @Not_Mandatory thinks will be the battery size offerings?
     
  7. Not_Mandatory

    Not_Mandatory New Member

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    I think the informed guesswork by @clprenz is right on the mark and probably very close to what we'll see. I'm only slightly less optimistic with the Wh/mi numbers, given the fact that although the Model 3 will be ~20% smaller, I don't think it'll be comparatively lighter, as I expect the steel:aluminum ratio to be higher than the Model S due to cost constraints.

    Using his excellent format, my guesses are:
    Base Car: 55 kWh (220 mi range) 250 Wh/mile Price: $35k
    Mid Level: 70 kWh (269 mi range) 260 Wh/mile Price: $45k
    Top Level: 85 kWh (327 mi range) 260 Wh/mile Price: $49k

    Those are my guesstimates for non-Performance, RWD versions with only standard options in which only the battery pack is upgraded. Dual motor versions will see a very modest range benefit, just as Performance versions will see a concomitant range penalty.

    You may notice that I also made the mid-range battery slightly more expensive, based upon the following assumption: The base battery will NOT be a software-limited larger capacity battery to keep costs as low as possible for the Model 3's lower margin tolerance. However, it would make PERFECT sense, imho, to have the "larger" of the new packs be 85kWh in capacity and also sold as a 70kWh software-limited version by building in the extra cost for those that choose to upgrade from the base battery so that it doesn't lose money even if they never upgrade from 70-85kWh later.

    It'll be very interesting to see where the actual specs fall...Teslarati should start an official contest with a free aftermarket gadget as the prize! :)
     
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  8. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    I live in Europe and reserved a model 3. For a 85 to 90 kWh model with some more options and doing 0 to 60 in 2,9 seconds I am prepared to pay Euro 55k to absolute max 60K. Or in $ 58,5255 to 63,8460. But absolutaly not one penny more.
     
  9. Les Inanchy

    Les Inanchy New Member

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    Doesn't anyone think that the base model three should at least match the Chevy Bolt EV at 238 miles. I have a model three reserved but just for fun I test drove the Bolt the other day. It's typical Chevy small car styling, but it was quite comfortable and roomy inside and had a few neat features such as 360° camera view and the rearview mirror operates as either a mirror or a rearview camera with a wide field of view. Doesn't mean I'm going to be buying one anytime soon. Just hope my model three is available before the end of this year. I was in the first hundred thousand to order, so I'm hoping that gives me a good spot. regarding the other sizes, I would like to see at least the possibility of getting 300+ miles. My intention is to go for the highest mileage battery.
     
  10. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    @Les Inanchy , yes, has always been my view. While it continues to be very debatable the Bolt is a true competitor to Model ≡ (they are essentially in different leagues and very few reservation holders seriously consider jumping ship for the former...), despite the similar price range, I still view it as a strong statement Elon is likely to want to make... My money stays on 240 min., maybe even 250 miles if technically & economically achievable ! :)
     
  11. Onlineo

    Onlineo New Member

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    My guess is base of 53kWh for around 220 miles $35,000, and dual motor 74kWh for a range of 310 miles $47,000. I don't anticipate a third option. Without dual motors the larger pack will not reach 310miles or 500km.

    No $60,000 option that does 0-60 in 2.9 seconds. I imagine that will come in year 2 or year 3 (with a higher price tag closer to $80,000) as will larger battery packs.

    It has been estimated that the current batteries from the 85 model S would fit in the 3 as the battery space is 90% that of the S. Now with the change to more dense gigafactory batteries I think the 3 could one day hold as much as 110kWh of batteries. This won't be an option for a while / ever but it means Tesla will have scope to do range boost and battery powered acceleration boosts every year or two to spur demand or stay ahead of a competitor.
     
  12. clprenz

    clprenz Member

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    This makes complete sense. I agree- high-end performance or "mega" options aren't being planned for the launch, but rather down the road. Do you think most people will opt-in for the high end battery?
     
  13. gene

    gene Moderator

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    According to @Paul Carter and Model3Tracker.info data, 57% of buyers will opt for the largest battery. That's great for Tesla as the battery pack will likely be the company's highest profit margin upgrade. I imagine those that opt for the smaller pack size will eventually upgrade their range, which brings up another point.

    Does anyone think that the lowest battery capacity Model 3 will actually come with a larger battery pack but software limited?
     
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  14. Tesla Addict

    Tesla Addict Member

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    Great question Gene; what I thought is this: would it be possible/efficient to only have ONE battery size and limit the options by software? (ex: 70kwh can be limited to 60kwh and 40kwh)

    I mean, that would speed up the production, but would they be losing money? I think they would, but I think they might make that money back in other places...

    Thoughts?
     
  15. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter New Member

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    I would guess the margins for a volume car won't allow for that, especially during the ramp.
     
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  16. BenitoFR06

    BenitoFR06 New Member

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    #16 BenitoFR06, Feb 22, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2017
    This is already the case for the Model S60 which is based on a S75 battery software limited.
    That's why you may still upgrade after.

    But the nice thing is to consider that if the S60 has a 75KW battery that means the 100% full charge of a 60KW may be achieved in the same time as 80% of a 75kW ?
     
  17. Electric Jen

    Electric Jen New Member

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    I fairly certain this kind of info will not be discussed but I'm hoping we get some kind of crumbs of M3 info on the call today.
     
  18. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    I am fairly certain the range will be articulated around the 70 kWh battery size. Yet it was announced the 'smaller' battery works be less than 60 kWh so l, for the sake of the discussion, let's say 55 kWh (I am not as sophisticated than those who expect a possible 53 kWh option... :D). I would prefer it this was software limited (which would give us the option to upgrade after a few years...) yet I am not prepared to bet on that... :)
    Then, on the higher end... Elon is perfectly aware there is a lot of market pull for a high(et) performance version which would be as large as feasible... my bet is on 85 kWh...
    Ok. Putting my cristal ball aside now... :p
     
  19. Onlineo

    Onlineo New Member

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    Elon has said he expects the average selling price to be $42,000. That means the autopilot/self drive option will be $5000 or less. There will be a lot of people who just order the basic car. But there will be many who order dual motors and larger battery pack too. Maybe there will be a performance model too but I don't think so, that is a $30,000 upgrade on the top model S and will have to be similarly priced for the 3. Also pretty certain there will be no battery pack as large as the 75 or else S and X sales will be massively capitalised unless they are all going to get a battery upgrade in July.

    I like the work for the survey but I think the numbers may be a little optimistic. This is a survey of the top 1% most enthusiastic reservation holders. They are much more likely to be able to justify upgrades compared to the majority.
     
  20. Mergoscia

    Mergoscia Member

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    Quote":"
    My guess is base of 53kWh for around 220 miles $35,000, and dual motor 74kWh for a range of 310 miles $47,000. I don't anticipate a third option. Without dual motors the larger pack will not reach 310miles or 500km.

    No $60,000 option that does 0-60 in 2.9 seconds. I imagine that will come in year 2 or year 3 (with a higher price tag closer to $80,000) as will larger battery packs.

    It has been estimated that the current batteries from the 85 model S would fit in the 3 as the battery space is 90% that of the S. Now with the change to more dense gigafactory batteries I think the 3 could one day hold as much as 110kWh of batteries. This won't be an option for a while / ever but it means Tesla will have scope to do range boost and battery powered acceleration boosts every year or two to spur demand or stay ahead of a competitor.
    Click to expand..."

    - Ok, 0-62 mph or 0 - 100 km in 2.9 sec is a bit to much for an ask. But under 4 should be!
    - $ 80.000 for any model 3 is way out of proportion. That means in Europe Euro 80.000. Model 3 is a small car and stays a small car even when Elon says it is a Sedan. There will be bigger electric cars of other brands the years ahead. Starting from 2018.
    - When 85 kWh is not an option then I will redraw my reservation. And I think a lot of other people will do too. The model 3 is not that less in weight then the model S. So even with 74kWh model 3 will be a slow car. As slow as a sneal.
    People want to buy the model 3 because they expect model 3 could and will be fast. (and furious). People see the model 3 as a "sports car". Far more so then the model S. The "S" is a luxurious and upper class car in Europe.
    - Elon says the model 3 can reach 310 miles or 500 km. Here in Europe the experts say it'll only reach 217,48 miles or 350 km at most in the real world.

    Considering all the above I don't know I will persue buying the model 3 or any other Tesla.

    85kWh, under 4 secs, dual motor AWD and no more than Euro 65.000 or no Tesla is what a lot of people think here in Europe.
     

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