93% of Tesla Model 3 buyers will likely upgrade from $35k base, suggests new poll data

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Teslarati Bot, Mar 3, 2017.

  1. Teslarati Bot

    Teslarati Bot New Member

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    Updated data coming from a poll of nearly 6,300 Tesla Model 3 reservation holders suggests that 93% of buyers will opt for an upgraded version of the $35,000 car. 39.75% of reservation holders said they will be paying for an upgraded battery pack, and over 65% of would-be Model 3 buyers polled want some form of Autopilot. 43.07% of those respondents said they’ll upgrade to Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot driving-assist feature as opposed to fully autonomous self-driving capabilities.

    The data being provided by Model3Tracker.info, regarded as the authority for Model 3 early reservation data, provides insight to how Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp might look in the coming months. Paul Carter, founder of Model3Tracker, shared with us additional configuration stats by reservation holders, as follows:

    [​IMG] Source: Model3Tracker.info via Teslarati Forum

    Though Model 3 reservation sample data suggests that a majority of buyers will upgrade, most of the money will be spent on increasing driving range as opposed to performance. There’s been much discussion on the battery size for Model 3 with many community members speculating that Model 3 battery capacity will fall within the range of 50kWh to 75kWh.

    Founder of Model3Tracker Paul Carter notes that it’s unlikely Tesla will start off Model 3 production with an “unlockable” battery pack, wherein the vehicle would be outfitted with a larger-sized battery pack that would allow buyers to upgrade to more range via an in-car purchase. “I would guess the margins for a volume car won’t allow for that, especially during the ramp.” says Carter.

    Other interesting Model 3 reservation stats being shared by Carter reveals that only 8% want a fully optioned Ludicrous upgrade. Nearly 11% of those polled want the dual motor configuration, range and performance, but without Ludicrous.

    We’ve provided a breakout of presumed Model 3 options that reservation holders are selecting.

    Tesla is expected to open the Model 3 Design Studio online configurator in June. Based on company estimates for Model 3 production ramp, Tesla could produce up to 110,000 Model 3 vehicles by the end of this year.

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    Article: Only 7% of Tesla Model 3 reservation holders want the $35k base model, suggests new poll data
     
  2. Taylor S Marks

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    They've only collected data from 6200 deposit holders, and they're not random deposit holders. This sample could lean one way or the other in preferences vs the preferences of all deposit holders.

    As for margins on the battery pack, we know Tesla is around $100/kWh. So a software limited pack might have $1000-$2000 worth of battery locked. They're saying they'll have an over 20% profit margin on the Model 3 once they're making 5000 per week, and they mentioned they expect an ASP of $42000, which would give them an average profit of $8400. I think they can afford spending an extra $1000-$2000 on the chance that the buyer might spend $3000+ to unlock it in the future.
     
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  3. J.Taylor

    J.Taylor Active Member

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    So about 3/4 of us want a big battery and 4Wheel drive. This should come as a Zero surprise to anyone who has ever been in a car. I hope Tesla puts this as a "special option" bundle with a reduced price based on the higher volume. I would also like to see a "Canadian package" with a big battery, 4Wheel drive, and cold weather insulation.
     
  4. gizmowiz

    gizmowiz New Member

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    By far the most important upgrade to my family is AWD as Colorado is rough on rear wheel drive--darn near worthless in the high country.

    Second is more battery capacity, third is supercharging, and hopefully navigation is standard equipment (it should be on EVERY car made). I couldn't care less about auto pilot, sunroofs, leather seats, etc.

    Autopilot is dangerous forevermore--too many nuts out there.
     
  5. Onlineo

    Onlineo New Member

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    The sample is useless as it is only the most enthusiastic reservation holders who would be willing to respond to the survey, so it is heavily weighed in favour of upgrades.

    If there are 3 battery options the middle option could be a battery size software lock of the largest battery. If it is 2 battery size then there is no way they can afford the software lock on the battery. The cost you quote is for the cells. I imagine you double this cost for actual pack cost. As there will be at least 20% of people who buy who could never afford the upgrade it would be a waste.
     
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  6. nhirsch

    nhirsch New Member

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    #6 nhirsch, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
    so the data referenced on model3tracker.info is based on only about 6200 records out of 400K. Those who found their way there are obviously more of a car enthusiast so data is not only miniscule but also biased or skewed.
     
  7. Hovscorpion12

    Hovscorpion12 New Member

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    Given that most of the individuals who are interested in the Model 3, currently drive vehicles that were purchase at or around the base price of the Model 3, would be extremely happy. Personally, since Elon Musk has stated that given the Model 3 size, the battery will go no higher then 75kWh, While that does not mean they cant push 300+ miles like the 100D or P100D's 100 kWh. 215 miles will be the base while the maxed out Model 3 could theoretically be close to 250 - 276 (if your looking at it from the Model S 75 kWh. which is 259).
     
  8. TCTesla

    TCTesla New Member

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    The things I most want my Model 3 to have:
    *range around 300 miles = big battery
    *Memory for electric seat adjustments (my hubby is 10" taller than me)
    *panoramic opening sunroof (have loved driving a convertible for the past 13 yrs)
    *AWD for range & traction in any climate from snow to mountainous rainforest to city (but I probably could deal with single motor)
    *Autopilot because I hate boring interstate drives & accidents are most likely in stop & go traffic.
     
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  9. J.Taylor

    J.Taylor Active Member

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    I'm going to need the battery pack upgrade, the 4 wheel drive, and a winter package. Canada is like that.
     
  10. Samuel Johnston

    Samuel Johnston New Member

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    Give me a base car with autopilot. I will likely spend after market money on a plastic car wrap, and some colorful seat covers.
    (That is exactly what I did on my last car purchase, and I am very pleased with the results.) Living in the sunny South, I have no need for 4 wheel drive, and extended range seems a poor investment at the moment. It's a matter of a couple of years at most, that battery costs will have dropped by about half, so if It takes me that long to get a car built and delivered, the question will be based on different cost assumptions.
     
  11. rareohs

    rareohs New Member

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    March 31 reservation and while I'd love AWD + pretty much a maxed out M3, I know that would
    be into middle of next year maybe... so if I can get into a base model this fall (?) I'll do that. Might eventually upgrade to a MS but his at least gets me in the door :)
     
  12. joeski1

    joeski1 Member

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    The $35,000.00 price will never be attained by any buyer of a M3 unless the battery pack becomes an accessory...

    My favorite model s ad... you know.. their $49,900.00 vehicle...
     

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  13. Samuel Johnston

    Samuel Johnston New Member

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    Should the 35000 base price not be met, the entire Tesla enterprise will collapse.
     
  14. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    Not only don't I think so, if the delta would be a couple of grands, I also firmly believe this is a zero chance scenario... Elon would not let that happen.

    Now, indeed, I firmly believe that very few people will actually buy Model 3 for 35k, yet that will be their decision, probably based mainly on affordability.
     
  15. Samuel Johnston

    Samuel Johnston New Member

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    The point is not how many people actually buy the base configuration. The point is that the entire business model is based on the premise that a competitive electric car can be produced PROFITABLY for the average buyer (GM cannot do that). If that cannot be achieved, investors will flee - I know I will sell my stock, even if I buy the car, because the project will ultimately fail.
     
  16. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    Well, Samuel, my answer does not change.
    T≡SLA will be commercializing 400k Model 3 per year, at an avg selling price - with some options - of $42k and will reportedly yield in excess of 20% gross margin... That's >3.4 billion dollars of gross profit... of course there are large costs and reinvestment needs yet what a strong base!
     
  17. Samuel Johnston

    Samuel Johnston New Member

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    Well perhaps, but I did not make the promise to investors, Elon did. I did not make the base price either. I do know more about investors, than I do about electric cars, and investors get grumpy when the business model they invested in fails.
     
  18. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    Of course yet we have no indication it will fail.
    Today is a good day, a step in the right direction!!
     
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  19. ngtech

    ngtech Member

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    Well, now we know that 100% of Model 3 buyers will be upgrading from the $35k price this year and possibly well into Jan/Feb. :p
     
  20. Michael Russo

    Michael Russo Moderator

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    Well, agree it will be a high share... yet 100%? Dunno. There could be a few people who take the standard 220 miles version as is as of 4Q... ;)
     

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